The NHL draft is all about balancing risk and reward. Scouts are experts at evaluating players in their draft season, but their harder task is predicting development. They have to envision the improvement of a prospect’s skills but also evaluate the support system he will get in the years following the draft, as those are directly related.
NHL teams can’t host their newly drafted player for more than a 7 days camp in the summer. The player’s association limits the training of drafted youngsters as those, most of the time, aren’t under contracts with an organization. They are not yet employed by a team and can’t be asked to commit to several requirements, like multiple training camps, as they are not being compensated with a salary. As a result, in the first couple years of a player’s development, NHL organizations don’t get many opportunities to directly help their prospects improve.
For this reason, a team who has had success in the past with their players going through certain specific systems in North America or Europe, might be more inclined to select a player that will pass through those programs over someone of similar skill that won’t. They know some systems offer better development than others. Their trust in the ability of some well-known organizations to make their talent flourish could also help alleviate some concerns a management might have over a prospect and make him a more appealing option.
This is likely the case with the Habs’ third pick (58th overall) in the 2017 draft: Joni Ikonen. The 18 year old center/right winger has a road ahead of him that closely resembles Artturi Lehkonen’s, as he will also play for Frolunda in the next few years, the organisation that gave Lehkonen his break through.
With their high end facilities and their approach modeled on NHL teams, Frölunda HC is one of the most reputable hockey organisation in Europe. They had notable players such as Erik Karlsson and Henrik Lunqvist playing for them in their draft year and featured a multitude of other NHL regulars. They are attracting a lot of attention right now hosting a projected top 2 pick in the 2018 entry draft in Rasmus Dahlin. Dahlin will be added to a long list of prospects being drafted from their program recently.
It’s hard not to look at Ikonen to be the reflection of Lehkonen in a few years due to them being drafted in virtually the same spot and this existing connection with Frölunda. They are also similarly built Finnish forwards that both played, in their draft years, on the top line for their National Team in their respective U-18 World championship run, Lehkonen even spent the tournament on the left of Ikonen’s older brother Juuso. If we can’t deny a parallel between the two forwards, they are quite different in terms of play style on the ice.
Lehkonen has kept the same identity through the years, a smart player in all three zones. He displayed a lot of his qualities in his draft year finishing second scorer of his team with 30 pts in 45 games playing in Liiga, Finland’s elite league. He also had impressive international success that season, winning the bronze medal with the U-18 team and the gold with the U-20. Despite not being the fastest skater, Lehkonen showed he had great anticipation skill that allowed him to make smart, efficient plays. He wasn’t limited to being defensively responsible, his talent for finding open team mates with quick passes and his powerful shot made him contribute just as well offensively.
Here are some highlight clips from the U-18 tournament. (Video #1) (Video #2) (Video #3). Lehkonen wears number #12.
Lehkonen’s attributes and accomplishments would usually warrant a higher draft pick then #55 overall. However, teams had some legitimate concerns with his size. Contrary to Joni Ikonen who, despite being around the same height, plays at more than 170 lbs, Lehkonen was reputed weighting less than 160 lbs during his draft season. Being smaller than most is one thing, but, in a league that is still apprehensive of drafting undersized players, a light weight made his draft stock fall even more (to the Habs’ good fortune).
Joni Ikonen Video Review
Ikonen fits the skilled forward label more than Lehkonen. Despite not being able to find footage of Ikonen playing center for his J20 team, he doesn’t seem to be a two-way forward in the making unlike Lehkonen in his draft season. However, what makes Ikonen special is one of the best set of hands in the 2017 draft class.
Ikonen is exceptionally talented with the puck. He uses creative moves to beat defenders and has great balance on his skates to go along with his skills. (Video #1). He displays a wide stance while going around the offensive zone and has his head up looking for passing options. (Video #2) He looks for the smallest of openings to skate through and will keep possession until he finds an open teammate. (Video #3) He also has a strong combination of quick, elusive movements to fool opponents and superior body positioning to prevent defenders from taking the puck away. (Video #3) (Video #4).
The current drawback of his exceptional puck handling skill is that he is little too confident in it. Too many times, Ikonen tries to go through defenders collapsing on him at the blue line instead of using his team mates in neutral zone transitions. He tends to cost his team some turnovers. His skill might be enough against less talented opponents, but when he faces better players, like in the U-18 tournament, he needs to use his passing options more. (Video #5), (Video #6). This issue was more apparent when his team was being dominated in the finals of the U-18 tournament and it had an adverse effect on his line being able to create scoring chances. (Video #7).
Ikonen has more than one tool in his offensive game. He has a good wrist shot that will improve in accuracy and power over time. He also has no problem receiving and shooting in one fluid motion, a move some NHLers aren’t comfortable doing and is telling of his remarkable skill.
His main weapon on the power play is the one-timer from the top of the face-off circle. He will, however, use all the space given to him and go as low as possible to get it off. (Video #8). He seemed to always be used at the left point on the power play (as he is right handed) for this reason. (Video #9), (Video #10).
While Ikonen has good positioning in the offensive zone, he would have an easier time scoring if he was more deceptive. Most of his shots are telegraphed and it’s quite easy to know what he wants to do. By masking his intentions and making extra passes, he would help his team on the power-play, as his one-timers would become harder to predict and find the back of the net more. His wrist shots suffer from the same issue (Video#11). He doesn’t have the quickest release yet so defenders have time to get in position to block them (Video #12). He would gain from keeping his feet moving in possession of the puck to find better shooting lanes.
Ikonen is far from a slow player, but his strong attributes, like his soft hands and his elusiveness, would all be pushed to another level if he added more power to his skating. He might have enough talent where it’s not a factor in the J20 league, but he would benefit a lot from from gaining speed when playing against elite players of his age group and at the professional level.
Currently, he seems to have trouble getting around defenders when entering the zone. Instead, he often cuts to the center of the ice to not get completely shut down by a backchecker catching up to him. It’s a lot harder to execute a zone entry through the middle as a d-man’s priority is preventing access to the net.
In other words, if Ikonen had another gear after his first few quick steps, he would make the defenders back down instead of moving up to challenge him. He would then have the space to execute his moves, instead of having to rely on them to get in the zone.
Roger Rönnberg, Ikonen’s coach with Frölunda’s elite team, addresses the issue of Ikonen’s skating in this great interview with Habs Eyes On The Prize. He talks about how it’s the main factor holding him back from a place in the top league.
It’s noticeable when watching Ikonen play in the SHL. Even if he can skate with the older players, he has trouble getting ahead of the play in a position to utilize his skills. Unlike some other bigger players, he will rarely be able to use his body to create the space he needs to make plays, the separation between him and a defender has to come from more speed.
Looking at footage of his time in the SHL, there are very few highlights, as he also has very few minutes of ice time. SHL teams can carry up to 20 skaters for (certain?) games, Ikonen seems to be used as one of the extra skater and getting put on a line with Christoffer Ehn and Victor Olofsson when the situation seems appropriate.
Some SHL highlights: (Video #13) (Video #14) (Video #15). Ikonen wears #12.
As is the case with a lot of prospects, his defensive game also needs improvement in terms of positioning before he can be relied upon in a top league. He tends to be reactive instead of proactive in his zone. You can see him just floating around at times. (Video #16). He probably won’t become a regular penalty killer but his defensive game can definitely be improved with appropriate coaching. As I didn’t find footage of him at center, it’s also possible that he acts differently when given more responsibilities.
Ikonen has many great qualities that outweighs his problems. He is a tenacious player that won’t give up on a play. (Video #13) He causes more than his fair share of turnovers, but he back checks hard when he has to and competes for every loose pucks even when being over matched physically. (Video #14), his great balance also allows him to win a lot of his puck battles. He can be aggressive at times and is not afraid to throw his body at players or pay the price to keep a play alive. (Video #15).
If the draft is all about balancing risk and reward, drafting potential high-end skill outside of the first round comes at the expense of taking a player with some considerable flaws in his game, or someone that just doesn’t have the size. Ikonen is a bit of both. He has some trouble with decision making and will have to improve his skating to take his game to the next level. However, with the way he processes the game at high speed, his incredible hands added to his scoring touch, he could become second only to Galchenyuk in terms of offensive prowess for the Habs, looking at players drafted and developed by the Canadiens in recent years.
Overall, it’s a bet on Frölunda’s program to handle his development as well as Lehkonen’s. For next season, Ikonen seems to have been loaned to Kalpa Kuopio in Finland’s top league. Liiga being a more competitive league than the Swedish juniors, it should provide him a better challenge that could be a good stepping stone to joining the ranks of Frölunda HC.
Funny thing, Kalpa Kuopio was also Lehkonen’s team before he found a regular spot in the SHL.
Clips of Joni Ikonen taken from his games in the J20 Academy Cup and the U-18 World Championship:
Author: David St-Louis @RinksideView
For comments and suggestions: scoutinghabs@gmail.com
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